This subject aims at providing the theoretical and applied background

in statistical inference needed by an economist. The requirements are

a quarter covering the rudiments of Probability and Descriptive

Statistics, density and probability funcions, and characteristic

functions, as covered by instance in the previous subject Estatistics

and Data Analysis. It also requires familiarity with differential and

integral calculus, as covered in Mathematics I ant Mathematics II.



This subject is a requirement for all Econometrics courses taught in the School.

1) Use effectively quantitative techniques to interpret economic data, understanding the relationship

between verbal, graphical, mathematical and econometrical analysis in the study of Economics.



2) Use effectively information technologies and computer-based resources, as required in the field

of study.

1. Use of Statistics in economic decisions.



Introduction. Case studies. Data bases.





2. Poisson and binomial distributions.



Bernoulli distribution. Binomial distribution and binomial frequency. Poisson distribution: definition and first properties. Practical considerations. Use of statistical tables. Convergence of the binomial to the Poisson and Normal distributions. Convergence of the Poisson distribution to the Normal.





3. Gamma, Chi-square, F and t distributions.



Gamma distribution. Exponential distribución. Square-normal distribution. Pearson's chi-square. Snedecor's F distribution. Student's t distribution.





4. Parameter estimation. Properties of estimators.



Introduction. Random sample and statistic. Parameter estimation. Point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator. Moment estimator. Unbiased estimators. Regular estimators. The Cramer-Rao bound. Efficiency. Convergence in probability and mean square. Consistency.





5. Hypothesis testing. Goodness-of-fit tests.



Statistical hypothesis testing. Design of statistical tests. Likelihood ratio test. Neyman-Pearson's theorem. Chi-square goodness-of-fit test to a totally or partially specified distribution. Independence and homogeneity tests. Interval estimation and hypothesis tests: mean, difference of means, variance, ratio of variances, lambda parameter in a Poisson distribution, binomial probability, difference of binomial probabilities.





6. Finite populations sampling.



Introduction. Simple random sampling. Stratified sampling. Conglomerate sampling. Two-stage conglomerate sampling. Sample units selection: the practice of random sampling.

Methodology may change across groups, on account of the different

numbers of students enrolled. Both expository and practical sessions

are held. Problems are handed for homework, after seminars showing the

necessary techniques.

• Sistema de Evaluación Final
• Herramientas y porcentajes de calificación:
  • Prueba tipo test (%): 15
  • Realización de prácticas (ejercicios, casos o problemas) (%): 15
  • Examen final (%): 70

a) Continuous evaluation



Continuous evaluation includes the realization of a

mid-term exam. Depending on the number of registered students, some

practical problems introduced by seminars may be proposed. All

continuously assessed work (mid term and practical problems, if

proposed) accounts for up to 30% of the final grade, with the final

exam making up for the rest.



If, for instance, a student obtains 1,9 points in activities and tests

along the course, his or her final exam will be worth the remaining

8,1 points. A grade in the final of, for instance, 80% of the maximum

will earn him or her 8,1 x 80/100 = 6,48 points, which added to the

previous 1,9 give a c ourse grade of 8,38 points.



In the most unfavourable case, an student following the continuous

evaluation path and earning 0 points would be in no worse situation

than someone decideing from the very start to go to the final exam

only.



Points obtained in continuous evaluation are valid throughout the

academic year (i.e., ordinary and extraordinary exams, usually in May

and July). They are no longer valid in subsequent years.



b) Evaluation only in a final exam



Students may choose to renounce continuous evaluation and have their grade based exclusively on the final exam. In order to do so, they just have not to sit at any of the exams or mini-exams scheduled throughout the course.



It should be understood, however, that students taking only the final

may be required to answer questions about any topic covered in the

course, with no exceptions whatsoever.



Students that choose not to take the final will have a grade of “no

presentado”, irrespective of any use they may have made of continuous

evaluation.



During the exams, students are allowed to use a pocket calculator and a handwriten summary of formulae or notes whose extension does not exceed one DIN A4 page (both sides). The use of phones or tablets (even as replacements for a pocket calculator) will not be allowed. Exams may take place at a computer room, where the use of the computers available in such room may be compulsory.



Exceptions can be made on account of the type of some exams. If that

is the case, it will be announced in advance.



We contemplate presential exams; however, should pandemic-like situations happen, we might set up non-presential exams administered through e-Gela.

Students failing to obtain a passing grade, have a second chance. The

same grading policy as in the first chance prevails.

In exams and problem solving, both in class and out of class, students will need a pocket calculator and/or a computer running suitable software. Such software can be:

1) R, which can be obtained for free from:

http://cran.es.r-project.org/

2) Gretl, similarly downloadable from:

http://gretl.sourceforge.net/

Both are installed in most computer rooms available to students. Familiarity with such software may be required to answer questions, both in the course of continuous evaluation and in the final exams.

Bibliografía básica

The following manuals essentially cover the syllabus, at the required level:



MARTIN-PLIEGO, F.J. and RUIZ-MAYA, L. (2004). Estadística I: Probabilidad, 2a Edición. AC, Madrid.



RUIZ-MAYA, F.J. and MARTIN-PLIEGO, L.(2002) Fundamentos de Inferencia Estadística, 3ª ed., Editorial AC, Madrid.



PEÑA, D. (2001) Fundamentos de Estadística, Alianza Editorial, Madrid.





In non-Spanish languages, students might want to check:



BAIN, L. and ENGELHARDT, M. (1992). Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Second edition. Duxbury Press, Boston.



GASPERONI, IEVA, PAGANONI (2020) Eserciziario di Statistica Inferenziale, Springer Verlag Italia, Milano.



GILLARD (2020) A First Course in Statistical Inference, Springer Nature, Switzerland.



HOGG, TANISS, ZIMMERMAN (2013) Probability and Statistical Inference, 9th. edition, Pearson, Boston.



ROSS, S. (2001). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. Academic Press, London.



ROUSAS, G.G. (2015) An Introduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, Academic Press/Elsevier, Amsterdam

Bibliografía de profundización

Books of problems and exercises include among many others:

ARTECHE, J. et al.(2000) Ejercicios de Estadística II: Estadística Empresarial y para Economistas, Servicio Editorial de la UPV-EHU, Bilbao.

FERNANDEZ AGIRRE, K. et al. (1996) Estatistika I eta Estatisitka II ariketak. Probabilitate Teoria eta Inferenzia Estatistikoa, UEU, Bilbo.

GARIN, A. and TUSELL, F. (1990) Ejercicios de Probabilidad e Inferencia Estadística, Ed. Tébar Flores, Madrid.

MARTIN PLIEGO, F.J. et al. (2005) Problemas de Inferencia Estadística, 3ª ed., Paraninfo, Madrid.

MARTIN PLIEGO, F.J. et al. (2006) Problemas de Probabilidad, 3ª ed., Paraninfo, Madrid.

Revistas

At the introductory level of this course there is no need to have
direct recourse to the specialized journals (of which, nonetheless,
the students may find an ample selection at the library, both in hard
copy and available on-line).

Regarding statistics available in Spain, students may find useful the
electronic journal "Índice". On applications of Statistics to a number
of fields, students may want to look at the journal "Chance".

Direcciones web

EUSTAT: http://www.eustat.es
INE: http://www.ine.es
"Indice": http://www.revistaindice.com
"Chance": http://www.springer.com/mathematics/probability/journal/144
Open Data Euskadi: http://opendata.euskadi.net

In problem solving, an alternative to estatistical tables is given by

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mbognar.probdist&hl=es

(There are versiones for iOS as well as Android.) During the exams,
however, the use of all kinds of wireless devices may be prohibited.

Other resources are published in Moodle.